Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Markets - sensex to go north of 22000



A leading research house has recently stated that India is the place to be for long term investors. It has even given huge forecasts for the sensex to go north of 22000 levels by the end of the current year. It has based these assumptions on the fact that India has now identified its core problems and is publicly discussing the same. The core problem here refers to the infrastructure bottlenecks in the country. The research house opines that the first step to solving a problem is identifying and discussing the same. As Indian leaders have taken this first step, the problems will therefore be resolved and this makes India the ideal investment destination for long term investors. 

Another school of thought begs to differ from this view. They feel that the problems in India go further than the infrastructure bottlenecks. The recent spate of scandals and scams has put a serious question mark on the governance in the country. Add to these ambiguous tax laws, rigid rules and regulations, policies that change overnight to suit populist view and the business environment becomes almost hostile. The recent cases of the Cairn-Vedanta deal as well as the POSCO deal go on to highlight these problems. 

True that India has several problems. Some of these can be quantified as short term problems. But unfortunately they have been around for a very long time. At times like these, Indian politicians need to stop bickering among themselves. They need to wake up and take a solid stance on policy reforms that reinforces the belief and confidence in the business community. Once this happens, India would definitely yield the superlative returns that long-term investor seek. 


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